Buying or Selling a Home?

Buying or selling a home is a big adventure; some thrill seekers may choose to take on both tasks at the same time. If you’re finding yourself in the position of needing to buy and sell at the same time, here are some tips to help you navigate the possibly challenging course ahead of you.

Evaluate Your Local Market

For most buyers and sellers, selling their current home before putting an offer on another property is their best real estate option. But for others, it really depends on the local real estate market. If you’re thinking of selling and buying at the same time, research the market in your target area. This can help you gauge whether it’s a buyer or seller market. If many properties are available, it might be a good time to list. If inventory is low, you may need to wait until the market picks up again.

The general rule of thumb is to sell first in a buyer’s market and buy first in a seller’s market, but this isn’t always the case since every experience is unique. You can really get an understanding of what might work best for you by talking to your trusted real estate agent; they will know the market and will be able to provide insight into current trends.

Understand Your Finances

When it comes to buying or selling a house, finances are a huge part of both transactions. Whether you are looking to sell or looking to buy, knowing your current financial situation is vital to your next steps.

If you have a mortgage loan, you will absolutely want to know how much equity you have in your home. The equity that has built up could be enough for a down payment on another home. It’s important to remember, though, that any equity is only accessible after closing unless you use a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or a second mortgage to cash out.

If you currently own, consider having an inspection done to understand what repairs or work may need to be done to the property to help you understand how much you may need to deduct from the possible sale price or any concessions you may need to make for a future buyer.

Utilize A Contingency

Ideally, you would sell your home on the same day as buying a new one. Since this is not the case for most buyers/sellers, adding a contingency into the contract can be helpful. In a real estate transaction, a contingency refers to a provision for a possible event or circumstance when it comes to the financial ability to close a purchase sale.

If you want to buy before selling, make an offer contingent on the sale of your home, which means you will buy the new home once your current residence sells. You can also request an extended closing (if you are certain your home will sell), which extends your closing past the typical standard of 30-45 days.

If you want to sell before buying, you can make an offer with a settlement contingency. This contingency works when you have an offer on your home, and you want to buy another which means you will buy the home contingent on the sale of your existing home.

If you happen to sell and haven’t made an offer on another home, you may be able to negotiate a rent-back, which means you go through with the sale of your home, but you rent the home back from the new owners for a specific time (anywhere from 60-90 days), giving you time to find a new home or make other living arrangements.

In low inventory markets, sellers are reluctant to accept contingencies because there are more buyers than properties for sale.  Competing in this kind of market, some buyers resist adding a contingency on the sale of a home.

Buying and selling are big events – if you are unsure of where to start or if you should do both at the same time, it is best to ask for help. Ensure your finances are up-to-date and have a reasonable idea of what you can get for your home. If you must search for another home while selling, have a backup plan if you can’t find another home in time. Your real estate professional can provide insight into the market and what other buyers and sellers have encountered.

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter

Exploring Down Payment Sources for First-Time Homebuyers

7/26/2023

Aspiring homeowners can overcome the challenge of saving for a down payment by taking advantage of various sources of assistance.  Discover a variety of down payment sources available to first-time homebuyers, from family gifts and retirement account withdrawals to tax refunds and down payment assistance programs, empowering them to achieve their dream of homeownership. 

Implementing effective savings strategies is paramount for first-time homebuyers. Setting a budget, reducing unnecessary expenses, and establishing an automated savings plan can accelerate down payment savings. Additionally, consistently monitoring spending habits and adjusting can help maximize savings potential.  Saving for a down payment takes time and there may be some other alternatives available to you.

One possible source of down payment funds is a generous gift from family members. Through the annual gift tax exclusion, individuals can receive up to $17,000 per year from each family member without incurring gift tax obligations. This can significantly contribute to a first-time homebuyer’s down payment, making homeownership more attainable.

For instance, a husband and wife can each gift $17,000 to their child and the child’s spouse to make a total of $68,000.  This is a substantial amount that may allow the borrower to avoid PMI. If the child is going to be the heir ultimately, should the parents not currently need the money, it allows them to see the enjoyment of the gift now.

First-time homebuyers who have been diligently saving in their retirement accounts may have the option to tap into their 401(k) or IRA funds for their down payment. Certain retirement plans allow penalty-free withdrawals for qualified home purchases. However, it’s crucial to consider the long-term impact on retirement savings and potential tax implications. Consulting with a financial or tax advisor is recommended to understand the specifics and make an informed decision.

Buyers with permanent life insurance policies may have accumulated cash value over time. This cash value can be accessed and used towards a down payment. However, it’s important to evaluate the impact on the policy’s death benefit and to consider the long-term implications before making any decisions. Consulting with an insurance professional is advisable to fully understand the terms and consequences associated with tapping into life insurance cash value.

Tax refunds can provide a boost to first-time homebuyers’ down payment savings. By planning ahead and adjusting tax withholdings, individuals can aim to receive a substantial refund at tax time, which can then be allocated toward the down payment.

Many governments, employers, and non-profit organizations offer down payment assistance programs to support first-time homebuyers. These programs can provide grants, loans, or matching funds to help bridge the gap between savings and the required down payment amount. Eligibility criteria and program specifics vary, so researching and exploring available options in your area is essential. Working with a knowledgeable real estate agent or loan officer can help identify suitable programs and navigate the application process effectively.

Silent second programs are offered by certain local governments or housing authorities. These programs provide a second loan, often at a low or zero-interest rate, to supplement the homebuyer’s down payment. The loan is “silent” because no monthly payments are typically required. However, repayment may be required when the home is sold or refinanced. Understanding the terms and conditions of such programs is crucial to ensure compliance and avoid unexpected financial obligations.

In recent years, crowdfunding has gained popularity to raise funds for various purposes, including down payments. Dedicated platforms allow individuals to create campaigns and seek contributions from family, friends, and even strangers who support their homeownership journey. While crowdfunding can be a viable option, it’s vital to carefully read platform policies, consider potential tax implications, and approach the process with transparency and integrity. 

First-time homebuyers have multiple options when it comes to down payment sources. From receiving family gifts and utilizing retirement savings to exploring down payment assistance programs and implementing effective savings strategies, aspiring homeowners can find ways to turn their dreams of homeownership into a reality.

By understanding the available resources and seeking professional guidance, first-time buyers can navigate the path to homeownership with greater confidence and financial stability.  Your real estate professional can be very helpful in guiding you through which programs may be available.  They can guide you to a lender who specializes in down payment assistance and other special programs.

For more information, download the Buyers Guide.

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
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How to Handle an Appraisal Gap

An appraisal gap describes the difference between the sales price and the lower amount of the appraisal required by the mortgage being obtained by the buyer.  It becomes an issue if the seller is not willing to lower the price or the buyer is not willing to pay the difference in cash.

Looking at the issue from the seller’s perspective, “if the buyer wants my home and he can’t get the loan he wants, he’ll have to make up the difference in cash.”  The buyer might have a different view like “If an independent appraiser can’t justify the price, I’m not going to pay more than appraised value.”

  1. Pay the difference in the appraised value and the purchase price in cash. 
    Solution – Assuming the buyer has adequate cash reserves and is willing to pay above appraised value, this will satisfy the lender.
  2. Decrease your down payment percentage to apply toward the appraisal gap.  It may trigger mortgage insurance which will increase your payment.
    Example:
    $400,000 Sales Price with 20% down payment of $80,000; Home appraises for $390,000
    Possible solution … buyer could take $10,000 of the $80,000 he was going to use for the down payment and make up the gap.  That only leaves him $70,000 which is a good downpayment for this size home, but it may require that he pay mortgage insurance because the loan-to-value is more than 80%.
  3. Renegotiate the contract with the seller.  Assuming both parties are willing to negotiate on the terms, the seller could lower the price to the appraised value, or any other number of possibilities.
  4. Include an appraisal gap clause – Buyer and seller agree that if the appraised value comes in lower than the purchase price, buyer agrees to pay up to $XX,000 above appraised value, but not exceeding the purchase price.

    An appraisal gap clause addresses what the buyer is willing to do within the parameters included.  It provides limited comfort to both the seller and buyer to address the issue of the home appraising for a lower amount than necessary.  This clause provides a way for the buyer to compete in a seller’s market.
  5. Terminate the contract.

Appraisals can be a confusing but necessary part of the process when the buyer needs a mortgage.  I’m available to answer any questions and share our experience with you. Our goal is to be your source of real estate information.

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter

Shopping Mortgage Rates

Nobel Prize recipient, Richard Thaler, in his research into seemingly irrational economic behaviors, “found that consumers generally search too little, get confused while evaluating complex alternatives, and are slow to switch from past choices, even if it costs them.” “Why are consumers leaving money on the table?”

Based on this behavior, a borrower securing a mortgage might depend on their existing banking relationship or a single referral from a friend or agent rather than shopping multiple lenders.

When shopping for a lower mortgage rate, consider that not all lenders share the same business practices.  Some may lure unsuspecting borrowers to a rate, knowing full well that they cannot deliver on it.  After making a loan application and supplying information necessary for approval, they reveal that the rate is not available for “whatever” reason.

They’re counting on the borrower wanting to get into the home because the closing date is near and they’ll compromise by accepting the higher than quoted rate.

Shopping for a mortgage rate can result in savings because rates are set by individual lenders.  To get an apples-to-apples comparison, the terms of the mortgage being shopped should be consistent among the lender candidates.

Consumers can make additional savings by not only shopping for better rates but for better terms and fees, which can vary widely among lenders.

The amount of savings can be affected not only by the difference in rates, but the size of the mortgage and the length of time borrowers expect to keep it without refinancing or selling.

  • Advertised rates are generally for A++ borrowers and the determination is the lender’s based on many factors.  It may be unlikely those rates are offered to you. 
  • A recommendation for the best lender from a friend or family member will not necessarily be the best for you.
  • Instead of accepting the first offer received, shop for at least three to five offers.
  • Your personal bank may be convenient but it may not offer you the best rate, terms, and fees.
  • Ask if there is room to negotiate the rate or fees.

Ask your real estate professional for recommendations of several trusted lenders for you to shop a rate, terms, and fees. 

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter

Rethinking Backup Offers

Like with any professional, there are tools and techniques available to help with particular situations.  They might be more popular at certain times and might even be put aside or forgotten at others. For real estate professionals, one of those is the backup offer. 

In a situation where there are multiple offers, the seller can accept any offer for whatever reasons are important to them, leaving the makers of the other offers disappointed.  There is always some uncertainty that the buyers on a contract will close accordingly.  To hedge on that possibility, the seller may choose to make a counteroffer to one or more of the other offers to be a backup should the primary contract not close.

From a buyer’s perspective, the purpose of a backup offer is to be next in line to have the chance to purchase the property should the first contract fall through. The benefit is that you’ll be next in line to purchase the home without having to submit another offer and possibly, get into a bidding war.  It simply moves from the first backup to the primary contract position.

The buyer in the backup position also experiences uncertainty if it will work and possibly, feeling like they could be wasting their time while waiting to hear the outcome of the first contract.  Some of these buyers will continue to look at homes in the likelihood that another acceptable or better property becomes available.

Should this situation occur, the buyer in the backup position may or may not have the ability to withdraw from their contract.  It will depend on how the agreement is written.  It is important to understand the rights and limitations, as well as when they can be exercised.

A backup offer can lock you into a binding contract until the primary contract’s buyer is approved and closed or until it fails to close and the backup buyer becomes the primary.  The backup may or may not have a unilateral way to withdraw the offer prior to one of these outcomes.

Considerations that need to be understood by sellers and buyers alike are:

  • Can a buyer in a backup contract unilaterally withdraw at any time?
  • Will the earnest money be deposited on a backup offer?
  • Will the timelines for contingencies like mortgage or inspections need to be made before becoming the primary contract?
  • Will there be any fees incurred by the backup buyer?

Sellers sometimes use a backup offer to apply leverage to the primary contract’s buyer.  For instance, if the seller feels the buyers’ demands on repairs are too high, the seller might say something like “if you’re not willing to accept it ‘as is’, I have another buyer waiting to do so.”

Many buyers, as well as their agents, don’t want to obligate themselves to a back-up offer.  However, in certain situations, it is a good tool to have the opportunity to purchase a home that meets their needs.

In the highly competitive market experienced in 2021 and part of 2022, some buyers may have been reluctant to use a backup because of the slim possibility that it would become the primary.  With the shift in the market due to the interest rate increases, a backup offer could be a viable tool to get the home of your dreams.

Your real estate professional can help you understand the advantages and disadvantages of backup offers.  Recognizing that contracts are legal and binding agreements, you can also consult an attorney who can confer with your agent to understand the situation.  

Download our Buyers Guide

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter

Getting Comfortable with the New Normal Mortgage Rates

The biggest shock to homebuyers is the soaring mortgage rates of 2022 that doubled in one year resulting in approximately 15 million mortgage ready buyers displaced from the market due to affordability issues.

As of February 23, 2023, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 6.5%.  While that is twice as high as it was on January 6, 2022, it is still lower than the 7.75% average rate since April 2, 1971, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

When rates increase at a rapid pace like this, it takes time for the public to adjust and begin to accept it as the new normal.

Prior to the housing bust that led to the Great Recession, the normal for mortgage rates was in the 6% range and existing home sales were over 6.5 million for three years.  From 2007 to 2014, home sales were closer to 5 million with 2008-2011 at just above 4 million annually.

From January 17, 2008 to March 5, 2020, mortgage rates averaged 4.32%.  In this 12-year period, buyers experienced some of the lowest mortgage rates ever and became to expect that rates would always be that low. 

Then, during the hardest part of the pandemic, the government took unprecedented actions to influence rates even lower to where they averaged 3.06% between March 5, 2020 and March 17, 2022.

It appears that mortgage rates have peaked in this latest cycle.  In December 2022, the rates came down for four straight weeks following two weeks of slightly higher rates.  The question is what to anticipate for 2023.

The National Association of REALTORS(R) is expecting mortgage rates to be below 6% in the last half of 2023 possibly, 5.5% to 5.7%.  Zillow’s chief economist believes rates will drop to around 5.5% for 2023.  The Mortgage Bankers Association expects that “30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.3%.”  Fannie Mae forecasts rates will end 2023 at 5.7%.

Relying on the experts, rates are not going to return to the unusual levels during the pandemic or even in the past 12-14 years.  The new normal may well indeed be at the mid-5% level and when the public gets use to it, sales will begin to rise again.

Some buyers may need to adjust their price points because higher payments are directly impacted by the higher rates.  Even if they could have afforded more with the lower rates, that was a missed opportunity.  When the Fed gets inflation under control and the market rebounds from the pent-up demand, another window could be lost.

David Stevens, CEO of Mountain Lake Consulting, and former Assistant Secretary of Housing recently said in a LinkedIn post talking about the housing market in 2023 “So be advised…this may be the one and only window for the next few years to get into a buyers’ market. And remember…as the Federal Reserve data shows…home prices only go up and always recover from recessions no matter how mild or severe.  Long term homeowners should view this market…right now…as a unique buying opportunity.”

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter

Negotiate a Buydown to Get into a Home Now

If you are a prospective homebuyer, things have changed in the past year.  Most notably, mortgage rates have more than doubled which has created an affordability gap that has taken approximately 15 million buyers out of the market.

Inventories are growing but it isn’t because more people are deciding to sell their homes; it is because it is taking longer to sell properties because less people are qualified.  Current housing inventory is a little more than a quarter of what it was in 2008.

Buyers are wondering when the market will return to normal, as if mortgage rates at three and four percent should be commonplace.  The average mortgage rate between April 1971 and November 2022 is 7.76%.

Predictions for mortgage rates in the third quarter 2023 range from 4.5% for Fannie Mae, 5.0% for Mortgage Bankers Association, and 5.2% for Freddie Mac.

Traditionally, over the past 35 years, there is a 175-200 basis point difference between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rates.  However, recently, the spread has been 300 basis points.  Some experts explain this to indicate that the Fed’s tactics for lowering inflation is working and the mortgage market will soon respond which is indicated by lower rates in the past few weeks.

“The gap between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the government borrowing rate is much higher today than it has been historically,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, said. “If we didn’t have this large gap, mortgage rates wouldn’t be 7%, they would be 5.8%.”

There is opportunity for prospective buyers in today’s market.  The slowing of housing sales, down 34% from December 2021, have changed the environment buyers were experiencing in 2020 and 2021.  Instead of having to pay a premium over the list price, many sellers are willing to negotiate on price.

Without multiple offers being the normal, buyers can expect to include contingencies for financing, appraisal, inspections, and possibly, the sale of a home currently under contract.

Some buyers who are confident that mortgage rates will come down soon have opted to purchase now with an adjustable-rate mortgage.  This can lower the rate by about one percent for the first period which can be five years.  When mortgage rates returned to acceptable, the borrower could refinance to a fixed-rate mortgage.

Another option to consider would be to do a buydown on the mortgage rate.  Assuming that in the “softer” market, the seller would accept an offer to buydown the interest rate for the first two years.  It would allow the buyer to purchase at today’s prices, with much lower payments for the first two years.

Example

$500,000 Purchase Price, 80% loan-to-value @6.13% for 30 years | Cost of buydown – $8,934
 1st year2nd yearRemainder
Payment Rate4.13%5.13%6.13%
P&I Payments$1,940$2,179$2,432
Monthly Savings$492$253 

This type of mortgage is a standard, conforming, fixed-rate loan where the buyer must qualify at the note rate.  The payment for the first year is 2% less than the note rate and for the second year is 1% less than the note rate.  The difference must be paid in advance at closing and in the case of this example, the seller paid it based on contract negotiations.

During this period of lower payments, if the rate comes down, they could refinance the property.  Let’s further assume that the rates come down at the end of the first year.  If the property is refinanced before the pre-paid interest is owed, the lender is required to reimburse the borrower which could be applied toward the cost of refinancing.

When the mortgage rates do return to an acceptable rate, there may be considerable pent-up demand from the mortgage-ready buyers who were priced out of the market.  This could lead to another seller’s market where high competition results in prices above list price and sellers not willing to accept contingencies.

Temporary rate buydowns have been available for decades.  Their main purpose is to help a borrower get into a home with lower payments initially.  In some cases, they need it because they depleted their cash reserves on the down payment; in other situations, maybe, they are upwardly mobile and expect to be making more income soon.

The reason lenders across the country are talking about them now is because they provide a reasonable and viable alternative to buying a home at today’s prices without having the higher payment initially for the current rates.  It especially makes sense if you believe that rates are coming down soon.

Your real estate agent can give you more information about this and explain how you can negotiate with the seller to pay the fee to get this type of loan.  Call us at (801) 821-9292.

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter

If you’re on the sidelines, at least get ready…

It's time to get ready

If you’re on the sidelines to buy a home, there are things you can do to be ready when you do get back in the game.

Improve your credit score to qualify for the best mortgage rate available which are reserved for those with the highest scores.  Get a copy of your current credit reports from all three of the main credit bureaus: Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian.  You can get them at AnnualCreditReport.com without paying for them.

While you won’t see a credit score on these reports, you will see a history of your available credit accounts.  According to the Federal Trad Commission, one in five people have at least one error on one of their credit reports which can lower your score or increase the cost or likelihood of receiving new credit.  Identify and correct these mistakes. 

Explain in writing the error in the report and include copies of documents that support your dispute.  Both the credit bureau and the business that supplied the information must correct the information that is in error.  There will not be a fee to correct it.  You can get specific info for the process on each credit reporting companies’ website and from the FTC Consumer Advice.

There is a term call “credit utilization” which describes how much of your available credit on each revolving account is currently being used.  If the limit on one card were $10,000 and you had a $5,000 balance, the utilization ratio is 50%.  Amounts above 30% can negatively impact your credit score even if you do pay the balance each month.

Any delinquent items that may appear on your credit report need to be cleared up.  Regardless of whether there is a legitimate reason, it needs to be explained to the credit bureau.  Beginning in 2023, medical collections less than $500 will no longer be reported on consumer credit reports.

Continue to save for a down payment because mortgages less than 80% of loan-to-value require mortgage insurance which increases the monthly payment.  The exception to the rule is for VA loans which do not require it.  The cost of mortgage insurance could add 0.5% to 2% or more to the payment.

Lower your debt-to-income ratio by paying off installment loans for cars, boats, and other things.

While there are legitimate credit repair services available, you may be able to get excellent advice from a trusted mortgage professional.  You’ll eventually want to be pre-approved before you start looking at homes.  Your real estate agent can make a recommendation to connect you with someone who will get you ready to get back into the game.

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter

Negotiating Your Position

The seller wants the most for their home and the buyer wants to pay the least possible.  From the very beginning of the home buying process, there are adversarial positions between the principals.  If you happen to be in a multi-offer situation, it just complicates things further.

Then, there are the emotions that tend to cloud the decision making on both sides of the transaction.  Sellers have lived in the home for years, possibly, with cherished family experiences and maybe, having put considerable effort and money into capital improvements.

On the buyer side, they may have lost out on several homes due to competing offers and now, this year, interest rates have doubled, and the discretionary funds required to pay for a home could be causing cuts in their budget in other areas.

A year ago, buyers were waiving contingencies for financing, appraisals, inspections, and other things just to be competitive.  Today, to make the home more affordable with the higher mortgage rates, buyers need the seller to make financial concessions but who is going to make their case to the seller for them?

The role of a third-party negotiator played by the real estate professionals has always been valuable to the success of the transaction but now, it may even be essential.  Sellers enjoyed an extraordinary market in their favor for the past two years with incredible appreciation and so many buyers chasing so few homes, the sellers were able to write their own ticket.

Inflation and mortgage rates have put the brakes on the market, eliminating over 15 million mortgage-ready buyers.  The buyers who are still in the market need to be cautious, so they don’t overextend themselves and overpay for a home.

The agents can assist both the buyers and sellers in seeing things in an objective way that reflects the current market and not the way it was a year ago.  All parties must be reasonable and not expect too much.  They need to consider facts and not feelings.

Negotiating the sale or purchase of a home is a competition; for one person to get something, someone must give something up.  If a person doesn’t feel comfortable with this, it is important to work with an agent who can bring their skills to the table on your behalf.  As your advocate, they can champion your position and put transactions together that would not have been possible if it were left to the principals alone.

Negotiation skills are acquired through training and experience.  When interviewing an agent, ask them what role negotiation plays in their marketing plan if you’re a seller and purchase plan, if you are a buyer.  An agent who cannot defend their position in the transaction may not be the right person to defend yours.

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter

“Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya?”

You may remember the famous line in the Dirty Harry movie when Clint Eastwood has just had a shootout with bank robbers and is standing in front of the lone surviving thief who is considering going for his gun. Harry with his gun pointed at the bad guy says to him “”Did he fire six shots or only five? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I kinda lost track myself. But being this is a 44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you’ve gotta ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya?” 

Our economy has had a long recovery from the great recession, due in most part to the housing crisis of 2007-2009.  Then, the Pandemic hit in 2020 which tanked the worldwide economy but the surprise to homeowners happened to be housing.  2021 became a red-hot market with prices going up by 21% nationally. 

In 2022, mortgage rates have increased by four percentage points and haven’t been this high since 2008.  Inflation, at the end of September, reached a 40-year high at 8.2%.  The Fed recently said they’ll continue raising rates until they can get inflation near their target of 2% annual rate.

People who own homes have seen their values go up dramatically and so has their net worth. Due to the extremely low inventories and the maturing millennial market, there is a lot of pent-up demand for housing.

This leads us to the scene in the movie.  You may be considering buying a house now but at the same time, you’re thinking “Have prices and mortgage rates hit the top of the market so they’ll start coming down or will they continue to go up, making it cost more to get into a home?”

The facts are that the U.S. is the strongest economy in the world.  The housing bubble of 2007 was created by over-inflated property values and predatory lending practices.  Those conditions don’t exist today.  There is a housing shortage in America due to not enough homes being built to keep up with demand and people staying in their homes longer.

Homeowners have record amounts equity in their homes and foreclosure rate hit a historic low at the end of 2021 even though it edged up a bit in spring of 2022 as reported by CoreLogic.

Homes are expected to continue to appreciate but not as fast as they did in 2021.  The revised predictions for 2022 appreciation vary from Fannie Mae at 16%, Freddie Mac at 12.8% to NAR at 11.5%.

NAR Senior Economist Nadia Evangelou recently said “Mortgage rates are a heartbeat away from the 7% threshold. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.92% from 6.66% the previous week. While inflation remains elevated, mortgage rates will continue to move up, making homeownership even further out of reach for many.”

If the home you could buy this year for $500,000, will cost you $550,000 next year and the mortgage rate goes up from 6.5% to 7.5%, the payment will go from $2,844 to $3,461 based on a 90% mortgage for 30-years.

If interest rates are temporarily high based on the Fed’s position to lower inflation, a home could be purchased at today’s price and refinanced later when the rates come down.  5/1 adjustable rate mortgages allow a borrower to lock in a lower initial rate for five years which would allow a person to find the best time to refinance.

So, back to the movie scene… “you’ve gotta ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya?” 

Gary Thompson
CRS, SRS, SFR, e-Pro, Broker Associate
Masters Utah Real Estate
(801) 821-9292
5486604-AB00
Contact Me Visit Website Subscribe to Newsletter